| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 2,611 | 7,791 | 10,672 | |
| 2020 | R | 2,601 | 7,246 | 10,205 | |
| 2016 | R | 1,814 | 5,816 | 8,519 | |
| 2012 | R | 2,513 | 5,227 | 8,001 | |
| 2008 | R | 2,591 | 5,665 | 8,436 | |
| 2004 | R | 1,959 | 6,011 | 8,061 | |
| 2000 | R | 1,840 | 4,891 | 6,966 | |
| 1996 | R | 2,324 | 3,668 | 6,904 | |
| 1992 | R | 1,858 | 3,087 | 6,890 | |
| 1988 | R | 2,078 | 3,756 | 5,919 | |
| 1984 | R | 1,458 | 4,595 | 6,105 | |
| 1980 | R | 1,760 | 3,994 | 6,157 | |
| 1976 | R | 2,164 | 2,808 | 5,063 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,153 | 3,078 | 4,625 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,230 | 1,908 | 3,769 | |
| 1964 | D | 2,310 | 1,857 | 4,167 | |
| 1960 | D | 2,440 | 2,226 | 4,666 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,759 | 1,849 | 3,608 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,484 | 1,653 | 3,139 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,589 | 854 | 2,503 | |
| 1944 | D | 1,627 | 1,030 | 2,667 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,632 | 1,077 | 2,713 | |
| 1936 | D | 1,567 | 688 | 2,380 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,615 | 794 | 2,486 | |
| 1928 | R | 739 | 1,125 | 1,877 | |
| 1924 | R | 381 | 789 | 2,076 | |
| 1920 | R | 867 | 1,065 | 1,932 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,104 | 658 | 1,852 | |
| 1912 | D | 536 | 415 | 1,532 | |
| 1908 | R | 660 | 662 | 1,562 | |
| 1904 | R | 433 | 593 | 1,117 | |
| 1900 | D | 565 | 393 | 958 | |
| 1896 | D | 535 | 124 | 660 | |
| 1892 | R | 0 | 188 | 540 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Elmore County, anchored by Mountain Home and its Air Force base, delivers some of the widest Republican presidential margins in the state, with 2024's R+48.7 gap reflecting a rural electorate that has grown more consolidated over successive cycles.
The Democratic margin in Elmore County peaked at sixty-two points in 1896. By 1968 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was forty-nine points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Elmore County's median household income of $65,359 sits well below state and national norms, and 11% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Camas County and Scotts Bluff County.