| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 9,254 | 19,777 | 29,549 | |
| 2020 | R | 10,323 | 20,725 | 31,642 | |
| 2016 | R | 10,039 | 19,087 | 30,818 | |
| 2012 | R | 12,878 | 16,892 | 30,400 | |
| 2008 | D | 16,246 | 16,054 | 32,872 | |
| 2004 | R | 14,726 | 18,731 | 33,714 | |
| 2000 | R | 15,406 | 15,783 | 32,100 | |
| 1996 | D | 15,525 | 12,015 | 31,329 | |
| 1992 | D | 18,383 | 11,703 | 38,461 | |
| 1988 | D | 17,918 | 16,943 | 35,067 | |
| 1984 | R | 16,530 | 22,932 | 39,611 | |
| 1980 | R | 14,498 | 22,579 | 39,567 | |
| 1976 | R | 18,438 | 19,751 | 38,546 | |
| 1972 | R | 14,413 | 24,863 | 39,425 | |
| 1968 | R | 16,238 | 21,391 | 43,424 | |
| 1964 | D | 24,765 | 19,506 | 44,271 | |
| 1960 | R | 19,702 | 26,571 | 46,342 | |
| 1956 | R | 17,991 | 26,534 | 44,585 | |
| 1952 | R | 18,771 | 25,367 | 44,226 | |
| 1948 | R | 16,173 | 18,994 | 35,646 | |
| 1944 | R | 18,387 | 20,794 | 39,454 | |
| 1940 | R | 22,891 | 23,059 | 46,242 | |
| 1936 | D | 25,016 | 18,350 | 44,156 | |
| 1932 | D | 24,032 | 15,643 | 40,677 | |
| 1928 | R | 12,728 | 21,616 | 34,717 | |
| 1924 | R | 6,424 | 17,822 | 32,615 | |
| 1920 | R | 8,634 | 18,175 | 29,439 | |
| 1916 | R | 13,864 | 16,330 | 32,472 | |
| 1912 | R | 5,576 | 5,655 | 17,533 | |
| 1908 | R | 6,320 | 11,726 | 19,344 | |
| 1904 | R | 3,620 | 11,179 | 16,772 | |
| 1900 | R | 6,147 | 9,852 | 16,671 | |
| 1896 | R | 5,749 | 8,767 | 14,825 | |
| 1892 | R | 5,001 | 6,892 | 12,432 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Vermilion County's heavy industrial and coal-mining past produced reliably Democratic margins for decades, but the county has shifted sharply rightward over the last three election cycles, posting an R+35.6 margin in 2024.
The Democratic margin in Vermilion County peaked at twenty-one points in 1932. By 2012 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was thirty-six points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Vermilion County's median household income of $56,877 sits well below state and national norms, and 18% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cass County and Marion County.
