| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 408 | 2,182 | 2,610 | |
| 2020 | R | 463 | 2,159 | 2,638 | |
| 2016 | R | 432 | 2,094 | 2,601 | |
| 2012 | R | 750 | 1,835 | 2,619 | |
| 2008 | R | 879 | 1,699 | 2,617 | |
| 2004 | R | 1,102 | 1,734 | 2,845 | |
| 2000 | R | 1,149 | 1,405 | 2,593 | |
| 1996 | D | 1,355 | 816 | 2,427 | |
| 1992 | D | 1,383 | 844 | 2,545 | |
| 1988 | D | 1,428 | 1,104 | 2,564 | |
| 1984 | R | 1,277 | 1,308 | 2,608 | |
| 1980 | D | 1,542 | 975 | 2,545 | |
| 1976 | D | 1,985 | 435 | 2,456 | |
| 1972 | R | 872 | 1,169 | 2,097 | |
| 1968 | D | 1,144 | 479 | 2,438 | |
| 1964 | D | 1,565 | 282 | 1,853 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,770 | 978 | 2,748 | |
| 1956 | D | 2,063 | 608 | 2,676 | |
| 1952 | D | 1,867 | 656 | 2,524 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,899 | 279 | 2,199 | |
| 1944 | D | 2,057 | 505 | 2,568 | |
| 1940 | D | 2,366 | 500 | 2,878 | |
| 1936 | D | 2,150 | 420 | 2,600 | |
| 1932 | D | 2,840 | 402 | 3,253 | |
| 1928 | D | 1,994 | 787 | 2,783 | |
| 1924 | D | 2,250 | 467 | 2,758 | |
| 1920 | D | 2,688 | 688 | 3,442 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,646 | 494 | 2,185 | |
| 1912 | D | 1,409 | 331 | 1,942 | |
| 1908 | D | 1,625 | 482 | 2,184 | |
| 1904 | D | 1,428 | 468 | 2,031 | |
| 1900 | D | 1,587 | 533 | 2,168 | |
| 1896 | D | 1,624 | 390 | 2,088 | |
| 1892 | D | 811 | 223 | 1,418 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Carlisle County's 2024 presidential margin of R+68 points reflects a deep-rural western Kentucky electorate where a few hundred votes can produce some of the widest partisan spreads in the state.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in Carlisle County peaked at seventy-five points in 1932; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 2000 election delivered the county to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of ten points. By 2024, the margin had widened further.
The economic and demographic context is severe. Carlisle County's median household income of $62,439 is among the lowest of any county in the United States; 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Johnston County and Marshall County.
