| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,737 | |
| 2020 | R | 6,672 | 8,031 | 14,973 | |
| 2016 | R | 4,795 | 6,691 | 12,178 | |
| 2012 | R | 4,791 | 6,021 | 11,068 | |
| 2008 | R | 5,403 | 6,107 | 11,648 | |
| 2004 | R | 5,052 | 6,436 | 11,587 | |
| 2000 | R | 3,872 | 5,216 | 9,425 | |
| 1996 | D | 3,961 | 3,239 | 7,821 | |
| 1992 | D | 3,794 | 2,749 | 8,344 | |
| 1988 | D | 4,649 | 3,553 | 8,262 | |
| 1984 | R | 3,401 | 4,315 | 7,732 | |
| 1980 | D | 3,155 | 2,879 | 6,184 | |
| 1976 | D | 3,647 | 2,235 | 5,921 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,974 | 3,171 | 5,160 | |
| 1968 | D | 2,889 | 1,402 | 5,130 | |
| 1964 | D | 3,580 | 1,046 | 4,629 | |
| 1960 | D | 2,729 | 1,482 | 4,222 | |
| 1956 | D | 2,513 | 1,747 | 4,265 | |
| 1952 | D | 2,887 | 2,052 | 4,941 | |
| 1948 | D | 2,792 | 623 | 3,616 | |
| 1944 | D | 2,916 | 704 | 3,888 | |
| 1940 | D | 3,499 | 659 | 4,159 | |
| 1936 | D | 3,019 | 247 | 3,291 | |
| 1932 | D | 3,317 | 291 | 3,610 | |
| 1928 | D | 1,211 | 1,189 | 2,400 | |
| 1924 | D | 2,194 | 399 | 2,797 | |
| 1920 | D | 1,240 | 269 | 2,067 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,216 | 225 | 1,458 | |
| 1912 | D | 1,068 | 56 | 1,227 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Caldwell County sits along the San Marcos River corridor between Austin and San Antonio, where a majority-Hispanic population has coexisted with consistent Republican margins — a pattern that intensified in the 2020s as Latino voting preferences shifted rightward statewide.
The shift began with civil rights. 2000 marked the realignment in Caldwell County, by a fourteen points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at twenty-three points in 1972. The 2024 margin was fourteen points.
The political shift has tracked, in Caldwell County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 47% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $69,758, and a 13% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bastrop County and Keweenaw County.