| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 2,003 | 2,439 | 4,461 | |
| 2020 | D | 2,575 | 2,443 | 5,053 | |
| 2016 | D | 2,783 | 1,316 | 4,168 | |
| 2012 | D | 3,331 | 980 | 4,344 | |
| 2008 | D | 3,298 | 1,076 | 4,409 | |
| 2004 | D | 2,916 | 1,160 | 4,091 | |
| 2000 | D | 3,990 | 1,010 | 5,030 | |
| 1996 | D | 3,958 | 543 | 4,660 | |
| 1992 | D | 4,006 | 698 | 5,035 | |
| 1988 | D | 4,177 | 907 | 5,097 | |
| 1984 | D | 3,748 | 1,201 | 4,959 | |
| 1980 | D | 3,706 | 1,012 | 4,757 | |
| 1976 | D | 4,267 | 661 | 4,941 | |
| 1972 | D | 3,729 | 623 | 4,352 | |
| 1968 | D | 3,978 | 384 | 4,483 | |
| 1964 | D | 4,432 | 353 | 4,789 | |
| 1960 | D | 3,803 | 809 | 4,614 | |
| 1956 | D | 3,110 | 1,459 | 4,575 | |
| 1952 | D | 3,316 | 672 | 3,989 | |
| 1948 | D | 3,551 | 117 | 3,679 | |
| 1944 | D | 3,353 | 136 | 3,518 | |
| 1940 | D | 3,232 | 151 | 3,384 | |
| 1936 | D | 2,901 | 163 | 3,068 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,566 | 30 | 1,596 | |
| 1928 | D | 1,245 | 434 | 1,679 | |
| 1924 | D | 1,290 | 89 | 1,400 | |
| 1920 | D | 1,081 | 86 | 1,174 | |
| 1916 | D | 597 | 37 | 637 | |
| 1912 | D | 915 | 0 | 924 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Duval County, long anchored by South Texas Hispanic voters who delivered lopsided Democratic margins for decades, swung sharply rightward across the 2020s — a shift that mirrors broader realignment patterns along the Rio Grande corridor.
The Democratic margin in Duval County peaked at ninety-nine points in 1912. By 2024 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was ten points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Duval County's median household income of $49,038 sits well below state and national norms, and 33% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Starr County and Brooks County.