akashic
1876–2024
Sebastian County, Arkansas
Sebastian County·Arkansas

Sebastian County voted Democratic for a century. The shift began with civil rights.

Fort Smith anchors one of Arkansas's most reliably Republican metros

18762024·38 elections
Sebastian County, Arkansas · Troy Jarrell troyjarrell · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+38
in 2024
Archetype
Old Confederacy
since the recent cycles
Population
128,900
2024 ACS
Most similar
Crawford County
AR · similarity 0.99
91 precincts · 45,452 votes cast
Trump · R+38
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−37.5%
13,65230,71945,452
2020R
−35.4%
14,48731,19847,140
2016R
−39.1%
12,30029,12743,057
2012R
−37.1%
13,09229,16943,362
2008R
−34.6%
13,67328,63743,212
2004R
−24.5%
16,47927,30344,211
2000R
−19.7%
15,55523,48340,159
1996R
−2.7%
15,51416,48235,346
1992R
−0.6%
16,57016,81739,659
1988R
−42.8%
9,68424,42634,432
1984R
−51.4%
8,68827,59536,817
1980R
−36.0%
10,14123,40336,879
1976R
−5.7%
15,76817,67133,473
1972R
−62.6%
5,77025,21931,047
1968R
−21.3%
6,32012,07327,042
1964R
−12.0%
10,29913,11023,493
1960R
−14.6%
8,72611,74420,696
1956R
−15.4%
7,48910,23417,841
1952R
−12.9%
7,80210,11417,944
1948D
+24.3%
5,0752,9288,848
1944D
+27.0%
6,0083,4529,467
1940D
+45.3%
5,2491,9687,246
1936D
+59.1%
4,5391,1615,720
1932D
+58.6%
4,9371,2686,260
1928R
−4.2%
3,1863,4656,684
1924D
+19.4%
3,1481,9855,992
1920D
+4.7%
3,8523,4927,586
1916D
+46.3%
3,7191,3665,085
1912D
+45.9%
2,3965144,103
1908D
+17.2%
3,0352,0505,737
1904D
+11.9%
1,6451,2543,286
1900D
+36.6%
2,0949643,089
1896D
+44.1%
2,6221,0093,660
1892D
+25.3%
2,6921,5584,489
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
4.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
20.6%
Other Christian
17.7%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.6%
Pentecostal & Holiness
5.3%
Methodist
5.1%
Mainline Protestant
2.3%
Non-Christian
2.0%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 37.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Sebastian County's population clusters around Fort Smith, the state's second-largest city, yet it still posts presidential margins exceeding 37 points for Republicans — suggesting urban concentration alone doesn't moderate partisan lean in this corner of the Ozark Plateau.

The shift began with civil rights. 1952 marked the realignment in Sebastian County, by a thirteen points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at sixty-three points in 1972. The 2024 margin was thirty-eight points.

The political shift has tracked, in Sebastian County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 68% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $57,790, and a 16% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Crawford County and Toombs County.