| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 13,652 | 30,719 | 45,452 | |
| 2020 | R | 14,487 | 31,198 | 47,140 | |
| 2016 | R | 12,300 | 29,127 | 43,057 | |
| 2012 | R | 13,092 | 29,169 | 43,362 | |
| 2008 | R | 13,673 | 28,637 | 43,212 | |
| 2004 | R | 16,479 | 27,303 | 44,211 | |
| 2000 | R | 15,555 | 23,483 | 40,159 | |
| 1996 | R | 15,514 | 16,482 | 35,346 | |
| 1992 | R | 16,570 | 16,817 | 39,659 | |
| 1988 | R | 9,684 | 24,426 | 34,432 | |
| 1984 | R | 8,688 | 27,595 | 36,817 | |
| 1980 | R | 10,141 | 23,403 | 36,879 | |
| 1976 | R | 15,768 | 17,671 | 33,473 | |
| 1972 | R | 5,770 | 25,219 | 31,047 | |
| 1968 | R | 6,320 | 12,073 | 27,042 | |
| 1964 | R | 10,299 | 13,110 | 23,493 | |
| 1960 | R | 8,726 | 11,744 | 20,696 | |
| 1956 | R | 7,489 | 10,234 | 17,841 | |
| 1952 | R | 7,802 | 10,114 | 17,944 | |
| 1948 | D | 5,075 | 2,928 | 8,848 | |
| 1944 | D | 6,008 | 3,452 | 9,467 | |
| 1940 | D | 5,249 | 1,968 | 7,246 | |
| 1936 | D | 4,539 | 1,161 | 5,720 | |
| 1932 | D | 4,937 | 1,268 | 6,260 | |
| 1928 | R | 3,186 | 3,465 | 6,684 | |
| 1924 | D | 3,148 | 1,985 | 5,992 | |
| 1920 | D | 3,852 | 3,492 | 7,586 | |
| 1916 | D | 3,719 | 1,366 | 5,085 | |
| 1912 | D | 2,396 | 514 | 4,103 | |
| 1908 | D | 3,035 | 2,050 | 5,737 | |
| 1904 | D | 1,645 | 1,254 | 3,286 | |
| 1900 | D | 2,094 | 964 | 3,089 | |
| 1896 | D | 2,622 | 1,009 | 3,660 | |
| 1892 | D | 2,692 | 1,558 | 4,489 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Sebastian County's population clusters around Fort Smith, the state's second-largest city, yet it still posts presidential margins exceeding 37 points for Republicans — suggesting urban concentration alone doesn't moderate partisan lean in this corner of the Ozark Plateau.
The shift began with civil rights. 1952 marked the realignment in Sebastian County, by a thirteen points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at sixty-three points in 1972. The 2024 margin was thirty-eight points.
The political shift has tracked, in Sebastian County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 68% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $57,790, and a 16% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Crawford County and Toombs County.
