| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 25,178 | 71,480 | 97,737 | |
| 2020 | R | 25,614 | 66,097 | 93,024 | |
| 2016 | R | 21,797 | 62,194 | 87,453 | |
| 2012 | R | 22,051 | 56,876 | 79,861 | |
| 2008 | R | 23,653 | 56,683 | 81,127 | |
| 2004 | R | 21,068 | 53,404 | 75,024 | |
| 2000 | R | 18,873 | 38,682 | 58,876 | |
| 1996 | R | 17,068 | 28,365 | 51,694 | |
| 1992 | R | 12,846 | 22,842 | 45,689 | |
| 1988 | R | 11,603 | 31,796 | 43,851 | |
| 1984 | R | 9,384 | 29,356 | 38,744 | |
| 1980 | R | 12,389 | 20,948 | 34,561 | |
| 1976 | D | 14,858 | 14,208 | 29,484 | |
| 1972 | R | 3,914 | 20,245 | 24,159 | |
| 1968 | R | 4,020 | 5,121 | 24,302 | |
| 1964 | R | 7,846 | 12,849 | 20,695 | |
| 1960 | D | 10,579 | 5,435 | 16,014 | |
| 1956 | D | 8,645 | 4,971 | 13,616 | |
| 1952 | D | 8,789 | 4,812 | 13,601 | |
| 1948 | D | 5,168 | 928 | 7,312 | |
| 1944 | D | 6,317 | 1,126 | 7,443 | |
| 1940 | D | 5,153 | 684 | 5,837 | |
| 1936 | D | 3,202 | 541 | 3,743 | |
| 1932 | D | 2,692 | 429 | 3,121 | |
| 1928 | D | 1,190 | 974 | 2,200 | |
| 1924 | D | 838 | 318 | 1,248 | |
| 1920 | D | 818 | 551 | 1,490 | |
| 1916 | D | 725 | 279 | 1,180 | |
| 1912 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Bay County's R+47.4 margin in 2024 ranks among the most lopsided in Florida, reflecting a predominantly white, military-adjacent population centered on Panama City and the Tyndall Air Force Base corridor.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in Bay County peaked at seventy-seven points in 1940; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 1980 election delivered the county to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of twenty-five points. By 2024, the margin had widened further.
The economic and demographic context is severe. Bay County's median household income of $73,533 is among the lowest of any county in the United States; 12% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Whitfield County and Cole County.