| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 2,711 | 4,579 | 7,447 | |
| 2020 | R | 3,090 | 4,676 | 7,924 | |
| 2016 | R | 2,987 | 4,275 | 7,807 | |
| 2012 | D | 4,044 | 3,618 | 7,818 | |
| 2008 | D | 4,286 | 3,637 | 8,029 | |
| 2004 | R | 3,938 | 4,474 | 8,457 | |
| 2000 | R | 3,524 | 3,899 | 7,631 | |
| 1996 | D | 3,500 | 2,974 | 7,250 | |
| 1992 | D | 3,661 | 3,325 | 8,446 | |
| 1988 | R | 3,617 | 4,584 | 8,254 | |
| 1984 | R | 3,318 | 5,846 | 9,193 | |
| 1980 | R | 2,756 | 5,667 | 9,071 | |
| 1976 | R | 3,808 | 5,822 | 9,826 | |
| 1972 | R | 2,969 | 7,021 | 10,008 | |
| 1968 | R | 3,085 | 5,877 | 9,795 | |
| 1964 | R | 4,670 | 5,258 | 9,931 | |
| 1960 | R | 3,835 | 7,221 | 11,066 | |
| 1956 | R | 2,996 | 7,580 | 10,582 | |
| 1952 | R | 2,973 | 8,020 | 11,004 | |
| 1948 | R | 3,367 | 6,738 | 10,179 | |
| 1944 | R | 3,926 | 7,085 | 11,050 | |
| 1940 | R | 4,878 | 7,790 | 12,735 | |
| 1936 | R | 5,409 | 6,919 | 12,465 | |
| 1932 | D | 5,610 | 5,498 | 11,258 | |
| 1928 | R | 2,681 | 7,915 | 10,753 | |
| 1924 | R | 2,440 | 6,912 | 10,623 | |
| 1920 | R | 2,236 | 6,309 | 9,090 | |
| 1916 | R | 4,498 | 6,294 | 11,145 | |
| 1912 | D | 2,080 | 915 | 5,966 | |
| 1908 | R | 2,327 | 3,283 | 6,066 | |
| 1904 | R | 1,559 | 3,563 | 5,808 | |
| 1900 | R | 2,501 | 3,618 | 6,351 | |
| 1896 | R | 2,604 | 3,394 | 6,144 | |
| 1892 | R | 2,294 | 2,725 | 5,376 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Warren County's population has declined steadily as agriculture consolidates, leaving a smaller, older, and more reliably Republican electorate. In 2024 the GOP presidential margin reached 25 points, up sharply from the single-digit gaps of two decades ago.
The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached twenty points in 1912; the Republican margin reached forty-nine points in 1928. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.
Warren County's demographics — a population of 16,447, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $67,385 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Shiawassee County and Juneau County.
