akashic
1876–2024
Trumbull County, Ohio
Trumbull County·Ohio

Trumbull County votes the way the country votes.

Once a Democratic stronghold, now shifting sharply toward Republicans

18762024·38 elections
Trumbull County, Ohio · Jack W. Pearce · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+17
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
200,929
2024 ACS
Most similar
Des Moines County
IA · similarity 1.00
158 precincts · 97,096 votes cast
Trump · R+17
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−16.7%
39,75855,98397,096
2020R
−10.6%
44,51955,194101,001
2016R
−6.2%
43,01449,02497,700
2012D
+22.8%
61,67238,279102,723
2008D
+22.4%
64,14540,164107,271
2004D
+23.8%
66,67340,977108,145
2000D
+23.9%
57,64334,65496,239
1996D
+32.5%
55,60424,81194,745
1992D
+26.7%
54,59125,831107,606
1988D
+20.2%
58,67438,81598,250
1984D
+10.9%
56,90245,623103,259
1980D
+3.6%
44,36641,05693,002
1976D
+18.8%
53,82836,46992,544
1972R
−14.5%
35,27847,68085,266
1968D
+8.8%
40,36533,07682,760
1964D
+33.5%
54,34227,05981,401
1960D
+7.1%
46,92840,72487,652
1956R
−14.3%
32,91343,93676,849
1952D
+1.7%
39,06237,79376,855
1948D
+18.6%
37,09725,29763,392
1944D
+15.4%
34,31225,15059,462
1940D
+16.1%
34,61525,02659,641
1936D
+30.8%
32,38416,88750,329
1932R
−12.0%
17,87123,02942,913
1928R
−52.6%
9,11029,71039,194
1924R
−61.0%
4,00722,34130,049
1920R
−41.7%
6,81517,34325,259
1916R
−0.6%
6,0916,16713,080
1912D
+6.3%
3,3472,63311,375
1908R
−20.8%
4,4766,97812,031
1904R
−48.8%
2,1107,38310,799
1900R
−34.3%
3,6867,72311,753
1896R
−34.0%
3,8297,86711,878
1892R
−26.6%
3,2175,8199,788
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Italian
1.9%
African American
6.6%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
16.9%
Catholic & Orthodox
15.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
5.3%
Methodist
3.9%
Mainline Protestant
3.3%
Baptist
1.6%
Non-Christian
0.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Trumbull County in northeast Ohio's Mahoning Valley has swung more than 40 points toward Republicans over the past two decades, making it one of the most dramatic realignment stories among Rust Belt counties with a strong union-manufacturing heritage.

The Democratic margin in Trumbull County has rarely exceeded thirty-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-one points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by seventeen points.

Trumbull County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 85% non-Hispanic-white share, a 17% poverty rate, and a median household income of $56,435 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Des Moines County and Mower County.