akashic
1876–2024
Mahoning County, Ohio
Mahoning County·Ohio

Mahoning County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

Once a Democratic stronghold, now a consistent Republican margin

18762024·38 elections
Mahoning County, Ohio · Dreajc10 · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+9
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
226,491
2024 ACS
Most similar
Carlton County
MN · similarity 0.99
212 precincts · 113,233 votes cast
Trump · R+9
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−9.4%
50,63661,249113,233
2020R
−1.9%
57,64159,903118,966
2016D
+3.2%
57,38153,616117,636
2012D
+28.0%
77,05942,641122,801
2008D
+26.5%
79,17345,319127,659
2004D
+25.9%
83,19448,761132,904
2000D
+25.2%
69,21240,460114,119
1996D
+35.0%
72,71631,397118,178
1992D
+26.7%
64,73131,191125,650
1988D
+26.5%
75,52443,722120,126
1984D
+17.6%
76,51453,424131,438
1980D
+10.8%
63,67750,153125,161
1976D
+23.6%
75,83746,314125,294
1972R
−1.3%
62,42864,144129,088
1968D
+20.6%
68,43342,948123,578
1964D
+45.8%
90,93433,775124,709
1960D
+22.5%
82,14351,927134,070
1956R
−4.0%
59,12663,992123,118
1952D
+12.0%
67,72253,164120,886
1948D
+24.8%
62,46837,365101,146
1944D
+33.2%
70,10235,184105,286
1940D
+34.2%
76,44137,496113,937
1936D
+44.1%
64,88624,82590,858
1932R
−8.7%
33,13939,71375,861
1928R
−28.3%
26,92848,34175,748
1924R
−51.2%
9,33537,64755,264
1920R
−31.8%
14,94129,73646,570
1916D
+7.0%
13,01311,25625,225
1912D
+4.8%
6,8385,83920,703
1908R
−6.9%
9,31210,76021,023
1904R
−34.4%
4,43610,40417,350
1900R
−9.2%
7,4028,93916,686
1896R
−11.4%
6,7728,52915,432
1892D
+4.3%
6,3585,80612,750
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Polish
0.8%
English
0.5%
African American
11.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
25.5%
Other Christian
7.4%
Pentecostal & Holiness
5.9%
Baptist
4.9%
Mainline Protestant
3.9%
Methodist
2.8%
Non-Christian
1.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 48.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Mahoning County, anchored by Youngstown, spent decades as one of Ohio's most reliably Democratic counties; since 2016 it has shifted sharply, posting an R+9.4 margin in 2024 after deindustrialization reshaped its working-class electorate.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-six points in 1964; the Republican margin reached fifty-one points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Mahoning County's demographics — a population of 226,491, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $56,942 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carlton County and Mower County.