| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,332 | |
| 2020 | D | 11,022 | 5,591 | 17,086 | |
| 2016 | D | 10,212 | 6,262 | 17,987 | |
| 2012 | D | 8,654 | 6,565 | 15,593 | |
| 2008 | D | 8,444 | 6,048 | 14,675 | |
| 2004 | R | 4,726 | 6,165 | 11,030 | |
| 2000 | R | 3,482 | 5,741 | 9,958 | |
| 1996 | R | 3,346 | 4,945 | 8,937 | |
| 1992 | R | 3,414 | 4,935 | 9,632 | |
| 1988 | R | 2,799 | 5,376 | 8,288 | |
| 1984 | R | 2,384 | 5,221 | 7,661 | |
| 1980 | R | 1,896 | 3,388 | 5,796 | |
| 1976 | R | 1,803 | 3,376 | 5,358 | |
| 1972 | R | 524 | 1,497 | 2,061 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,036 | 2,859 | 4,352 | |
| 1964 | D | 13,542 | 8,731 | 22,288 | |
| 1960 | R | 836 | 2,172 | 3,015 | |
| 1956 | R | 571 | 2,265 | 2,893 | |
| 1952 | R | 635 | 2,238 | 2,876 | |
| 1948 | R | 751 | 1,377 | 2,352 | |
| 1944 | R | 1,292 | 1,302 | 2,602 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,462 | 1,000 | 2,481 | |
| 1936 | D | 1,390 | 894 | 2,297 | |
| 1932 | D | 995 | 665 | 1,692 | |
| 1928 | R | 616 | 1,037 | 1,653 | |
| 1924 | R | 624 | 631 | 1,270 | |
| 1920 | R | 594 | 704 | 1,307 | |
| 1916 | D | 346 | 319 | 670 | |
| 1912 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Home to James Madison University, Harrisonburg's electorate skews young and educated, producing Democratic margins above 25 points even as the surrounding Shenandoah Valley counties trend heavily Republican.
The 2008 election was the turning point, when the Democratic candidate carried the county by sixteen points. The 2024 margin was twenty-five points, in line with the county's new direction.
The demographics suggest why. A population of 51,392, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $62,254 situate the county in the broader realignment patterns of recent cycles. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Rockdale County and Hamilton County.
