| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 13,609 | 19,057 | 33,277 | |
| 2020 | R | 14,263 | 17,364 | 32,277 | |
| 2016 | R | 10,841 | 13,215 | 27,592 | |
| 2012 | D | 13,511 | 12,825 | 27,728 | |
| 2008 | D | 15,366 | 13,136 | 28,899 | |
| 2004 | R | 11,270 | 14,474 | 26,012 | |
| 2000 | R | 9,819 | 10,803 | 21,377 | |
| 1996 | D | 9,169 | 7,779 | 18,545 | |
| 1992 | D | 7,495 | 6,305 | 16,768 | |
| 1988 | R | 7,136 | 7,874 | 15,200 | |
| 1984 | R | 5,393 | 8,474 | 14,049 | |
| 1980 | R | 6,886 | 11,177 | 19,142 | |
| 1976 | D | 8,566 | 7,851 | 16,553 | |
| 1972 | R | 6,110 | 8,239 | 14,688 | |
| 1968 | R | 5,513 | 5,676 | 11,947 | |
| 1964 | D | 7,757 | 3,950 | 11,757 | |
| 1960 | D | 7,043 | 4,929 | 11,976 | |
| 1956 | R | 3,547 | 4,663 | 8,218 | |
| 1952 | R | 3,310 | 3,810 | 7,125 | |
| 1948 | R | 2,914 | 3,280 | 6,227 | |
| 1944 | R | 2,461 | 2,765 | 5,229 | |
| 1940 | R | 3,318 | 3,436 | 6,760 | |
| 1936 | D | 3,336 | 2,941 | 6,291 | |
| 1932 | R | 2,229 | 3,263 | 5,507 | |
| 1928 | R | 881 | 3,500 | 4,382 | |
| 1924 | R | 678 | 3,183 | 4,080 | |
| 1920 | R | 951 | 2,839 | 3,806 | |
| 1916 | R | 383 | 1,540 | 1,937 | |
| 1912 | R | 231 | 1,263 | 1,635 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Valencia County, anchored by Belen along the Rio Grande corridor south of Albuquerque, shifted from a reliably Democratic stronghold to an R+16 margin in 2024 — a swing driven largely by realignment among its majority-Hispanic working-class electorate.
The Democratic margin in Valencia County has rarely exceeded thirty-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-three points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by sixteen points.
Valencia County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 48% non-Hispanic-white share, a 18% poverty rate, and a median household income of $58,933 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Luna County and Hidalgo County.
