| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 384 | 3,368 | 3,761 | |
| 2020 | R | 397 | 3,385 | 3,805 | |
| 2016 | R | 348 | 3,034 | 3,470 | |
| 2012 | R | 475 | 2,892 | 3,412 | |
| 2008 | R | 626 | 2,869 | 3,526 | |
| 2004 | R | 703 | 2,803 | 3,519 | |
| 2000 | R | 811 | 2,425 | 3,291 | |
| 1996 | R | 1,218 | 1,714 | 3,279 | |
| 1992 | R | 1,115 | 1,573 | 3,756 | |
| 1988 | R | 1,519 | 2,342 | 3,874 | |
| 1984 | R | 1,046 | 2,898 | 3,955 | |
| 1980 | R | 1,372 | 2,161 | 3,608 | |
| 1976 | D | 1,796 | 1,621 | 3,429 | |
| 1972 | R | 678 | 2,259 | 2,944 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,239 | 1,287 | 3,051 | |
| 1964 | D | 1,753 | 1,119 | 2,874 | |
| 1960 | R | 1,357 | 1,664 | 3,029 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,126 | 1,832 | 2,971 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,471 | 2,272 | 3,747 | |
| 1948 | D | 2,132 | 572 | 2,890 | |
| 1944 | D | 2,104 | 217 | 2,804 | |
| 1940 | D | 2,750 | 471 | 3,223 | |
| 1936 | D | 2,380 | 681 | 3,080 | |
| 1932 | D | 2,684 | 256 | 2,969 | |
| 1928 | R | 1,163 | 1,789 | 2,952 | |
| 1924 | D | 2,184 | 372 | 2,661 | |
| 1920 | D | 643 | 141 | 845 | |
| 1916 | D | 572 | 12 | 687 | |
| 1912 | D | 462 | 11 | 571 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Stephens County, anchored by the small city of Breckenridge, delivered a 79-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 — a spread typical of sparsely populated oil-patch counties in north-central Texas where the electorate skews heavily toward rural white voters.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in Stephens County peaked at eighty-two points in 1932; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 1980 election delivered the county to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of twenty-two points. By 2024, the margin had widened further.
The economic and demographic context is severe. Stephens County's median household income of $58,008 is among the lowest of any county in the United States; 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Callahan County and Dewey County.