| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 18,331 | 33,117 | 52,263 | |
| 2020 | R | 17,207 | 30,558 | 48,703 | |
| 2016 | R | 11,932 | 26,083 | 40,440 | |
| 2012 | R | 12,690 | 22,858 | 36,394 | |
| 2008 | R | 12,961 | 20,149 | 33,612 | |
| 2004 | R | 8,853 | 19,386 | 28,540 | |
| 2000 | R | 7,158 | 14,574 | 22,392 | |
| 1996 | R | 5,976 | 10,608 | 18,412 | |
| 1992 | R | 4,942 | 9,425 | 17,468 | |
| 1988 | R | 3,707 | 9,921 | 13,717 | |
| 1984 | R | 2,671 | 9,542 | 12,267 | |
| 1980 | R | 2,948 | 7,293 | 10,787 | |
| 1976 | R | 3,389 | 5,162 | 8,672 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,604 | 5,367 | 7,139 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,612 | 3,696 | 7,454 | |
| 1964 | D | 2,880 | 2,585 | 5,474 | |
| 1960 | R | 1,757 | 2,061 | 3,835 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,405 | 1,882 | 3,360 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,326 | 1,803 | 3,134 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,244 | 921 | 2,404 | |
| 1944 | D | 1,213 | 938 | 2,156 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,631 | 773 | 2,406 | |
| 1936 | D | 1,386 | 665 | 2,058 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,536 | 456 | 2,016 | |
| 1928 | D | 1,140 | 1,006 | 2,146 | |
| 1924 | D | 1,314 | 484 | 1,827 | |
| 1920 | D | 1,337 | 875 | 2,236 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,194 | 366 | 1,581 | |
| 1912 | D | 922 | 181 | 1,235 | |
| 1908 | D | 866 | 354 | 1,245 | |
| 1904 | D | 858 | 316 | 1,202 | |
| 1900 | D | 1,748 | 671 | 2,444 | |
| 1896 | D | 1,848 | 845 | 2,728 | |
| 1892 | D | 2,035 | 700 | 2,803 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Frederick County sits at Virginia's northwestern gateway, where exurban growth from the D.C. corridor meets longstanding rural conservatism. Its 2024 margin of R+28.4 reflects a pattern of deepening Republican strength that has held across multiple election cycles.
The shift began with civil rights. 1968 marked the realignment in Frederick County, by a twenty-eight points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at fifty-six points in 1984. The 2024 margin was twenty-eight points.
The political shift has tracked, in Frederick County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 80% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $97,606, and a 7% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Greene County and Union County.
