akashic
1876–2024
Nelson County, Virginia
Nelson County·Virginia

Nelson County votes the way the country votes.

Blue Ridge foothill county where outdoor tourism shapes the local economy

18762024·38 elections
Nelson County, Virginia · Pubdog (talk) · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+7
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
14,732
2024 ACS
Most similar
Penobscot County
ME · similarity 0.94
9 precincts · 9,431 votes cast
Trump · R+7
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−7.5%
4,2985,0049,431
2020R
−5.2%
4,3274,8129,316
2016R
−5.6%
3,6894,1548,311
2012D
+2.7%
4,1713,9478,250
2008D
+9.1%
4,3913,6478,133
2004D
+0.1%
3,5433,5397,139
2000R
−0.1%
2,9072,9136,145
1996D
+15.1%
2,7821,9885,264
1992D
+7.7%
2,5862,1595,538
1988R
−4.7%
2,2722,5024,849
1984R
−15.6%
2,0212,7774,853
1980D
+12.1%
2,4101,8664,496
1976D
+22.6%
2,4261,5164,027
1972R
−39.7%
7241,6972,449
1968R
−0.3%
1,1201,1303,426
1964R
−8.6%
3,8724,6048,489
1960D
+31.1%
1,4807752,268
1956D
+22.0%
1,2157642,054
1952D
+24.5%
1,2227401,970
1948D
+47.8%
1,2043711,741
1944D
+52.9%
1,3904271,819
1940D
+59.1%
1,2913301,626
1936D
+52.9%
1,2043701,577
1932D
+71.6%
1,4572381,702
1928D
+32.6%
1,2166181,834
1924D
+48.4%
1,0423501,431
1920D
+42.5%
9733921,367
1916D
+62.0%
1,0632491,312
1912D
+55.9%
706163971
1908D
+41.1%
7423081,056
1904D
+51.3%
8472691,127
1900D
+13.6%
1,5301,1632,707
1896D
+11.4%
1,4921,1832,718
1892D
+15.2%
1,4091,0202,551
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
8.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
21.8%
Non-Christian
13.6%
Methodist
7.3%
Catholic & Orthodox
6.3%
Mainline Protestant
3.6%
Other Christian
2.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 45.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Nelson County's small, rural population clusters along the Rockfish Valley corridor, and its modest R+7.5 presidential margin in 2024 reflects a gradual rightward drift from the competitive results it posted a decade ago.

The Democratic margin in Nelson County has rarely exceeded seventy-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by seven points.

Nelson County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 81% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $72,589 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Penobscot County and Oxford County.