| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 6,910 | 15,400 | 22,679 | |
| 2020 | R | 6,603 | 14,069 | 21,147 | |
| 2016 | R | 5,169 | 11,773 | 17,951 | |
| 2012 | R | 6,452 | 9,869 | 16,698 | |
| 2008 | R | 6,997 | 8,879 | 16,126 | |
| 2004 | R | 5,241 | 8,600 | 14,068 | |
| 2000 | R | 4,313 | 6,335 | 11,166 | |
| 1996 | R | 3,814 | 4,657 | 9,652 | |
| 1992 | R | 3,554 | 4,319 | 9,676 | |
| 1988 | R | 2,769 | 4,700 | 7,598 | |
| 1984 | R | 2,551 | 5,016 | 7,631 | |
| 1980 | R | 2,597 | 3,861 | 6,920 | |
| 1976 | D | 3,221 | 2,985 | 6,517 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,645 | 2,120 | 3,855 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,513 | 2,297 | 5,296 | |
| 1964 | R | 1,234 | 1,537 | 2,775 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,850 | 1,842 | 3,720 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,322 | 2,003 | 3,405 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,362 | 1,888 | 3,261 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,291 | 1,016 | 2,483 | |
| 1944 | D | 1,034 | 761 | 1,798 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,338 | 491 | 1,833 | |
| 1936 | D | 1,174 | 426 | 1,604 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,096 | 367 | 1,472 | |
| 1928 | D | 710 | 564 | 1,274 | |
| 1924 | D | 699 | 150 | 888 | |
| 1920 | D | 720 | 293 | 1,034 | |
| 1916 | D | 583 | 214 | 807 | |
| 1912 | D | 571 | 122 | 740 | |
| 1908 | D | 562 | 209 | 784 | |
| 1904 | D | 540 | 151 | 706 | |
| 1900 | D | 1,068 | 462 | 1,549 | |
| 1896 | D | 1,172 | 575 | 1,792 | |
| 1892 | D | 1,286 | 389 | 1,717 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Warren County sits at the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley, and its rural, small-town electorate has delivered Republican presidential margins above 30 points in each of the last three cycles.
The shift began with civil rights. 1980 marked the realignment in Warren County, by a eighteen points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at thirty-seven points in 2024. The 2024 margin was thirty-seven points.
The political shift has tracked, in Warren County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 83% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $84,682, and a 12% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cameron County and Page County.
