akashic
1876–2024
Warren County, Virginia
Warren County·Virginia

Warren County voted Democratic for a century. The shift began with civil rights.

Shenandoah Valley county where Republicans routinely run up wide margins

18762024·38 elections
Warren County, Virginia · AgnosticPreachersKid · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+37
in 2024
Archetype
Old Confederacy
since the recent cycles
Population
41,531
2024 ACS
Most similar
Cameron County
PA · similarity 1.00
11 precincts · 22,679 votes cast
Trump · R+37
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−37.4%
6,91015,40022,679
2020R
−35.3%
6,60314,06921,147
2016R
−36.8%
5,16911,77317,951
2012R
−20.5%
6,4529,86916,698
2008R
−11.7%
6,9978,87916,126
2004R
−23.9%
5,2418,60014,068
2000R
−18.1%
4,3136,33511,166
1996R
−8.7%
3,8144,6579,652
1992R
−7.9%
3,5544,3199,676
1988R
−25.4%
2,7694,7007,598
1984R
−32.3%
2,5515,0167,631
1980R
−18.3%
2,5973,8616,920
1976D
+3.6%
3,2212,9856,517
1972R
−12.3%
1,6452,1203,855
1968R
−14.8%
1,5132,2975,296
1964R
−10.9%
1,2341,5372,775
1960D
+0.2%
1,8501,8423,720
1956R
−20.0%
1,3222,0033,405
1952R
−16.1%
1,3621,8883,261
1948D
+11.1%
1,2911,0162,483
1944D
+15.2%
1,0347611,798
1940D
+46.2%
1,3384911,833
1936D
+46.6%
1,1744261,604
1932D
+49.5%
1,0963671,472
1928D
+11.5%
7105641,274
1924D
+61.8%
699150888
1920D
+41.3%
7202931,034
1916D
+45.7%
583214807
1912D
+60.7%
571122740
1908D
+45.0%
562209784
1904D
+55.1%
540151706
1900D
+39.1%
1,0684621,549
1896D
+33.3%
1,1725751,792
1892D
+52.2%
1,2863891,717
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
4.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
11.2%
Other Christian
8.2%
Methodist
6.4%
Non-Christian
5.5%
Baptist
3.6%
Mainline Protestant
2.3%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Warren County sits at the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley, and its rural, small-town electorate has delivered Republican presidential margins above 30 points in each of the last three cycles.

The shift began with civil rights. 1980 marked the realignment in Warren County, by a eighteen points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at thirty-seven points in 2024. The 2024 margin was thirty-seven points.

The political shift has tracked, in Warren County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 83% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $84,682, and a 12% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cameron County and Page County.