akashic
1876–2024
Stafford County, Virginia
Stafford County·Virginia

Stafford County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

A D.C.-area commuter county decided by less than one point in 2024

18762024·38 elections
Stafford County, Virginia · Mojo Hand · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
D+1
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
163,466
2024 ACS
Most similar
Talbot County
MD · similarity 0.99
37 precincts · 83,539 votes cast
Harris · D+1
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024D
+0.8%
41,25240,59083,539
2020D
+3.3%
40,24537,63679,625
2016R
−9.0%
27,90833,86865,934
2012R
−8.7%
27,18232,48060,583
2008R
−6.3%
25,71629,22155,455
2004R
−24.6%
17,20828,50045,986
2000R
−23.8%
12,59620,73134,246
1996R
−16.1%
9,90214,09826,089
1992R
−19.3%
7,71812,52824,871
1988R
−38.7%
5,38012,23417,712
1984R
−39.7%
4,42910,29314,782
1980R
−24.0%
4,2117,10612,075
1976D
+4.7%
4,9004,4519,502
1972R
−35.9%
1,4983,2254,807
1968R
−13.5%
1,6982,5726,482
1964D
+25.6%
2,5661,5204,090
1960D
+1.6%
1,4941,4472,965
1956R
−22.1%
9781,5632,652
1952R
−13.3%
1,0771,4112,504
1948R
−1.5%
7087321,579
1944R
−1.1%
6987141,418
1940D
+26.8%
8034631,269
1936D
+4.4%
6515961,250
1932D
+23.3%
7314541,191
1928R
−28.8%
4417971,238
1924D
+1.8%
450433929
1920R
−13.2%
4595991,060
1916D
+2.5%
444422868
1912D
+30.6%
347141673
1908R
−7.7%
406474884
1904R
−12.0%
301384691
1900R
−14.4%
6488671,516
1896R
−26.5%
6291,0841,719
1892D
+14.0%
7425581,316
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Polish
1.1%
African American
15.9%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
12.7%
Baptist
7.1%
Methodist
4.4%
Catholic & Orthodox
3.3%
Mainline Protestant
1.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.6%
Non-Christian
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 69.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Stafford sits along the I-95 corridor south of Washington, drawing a fast-growing mix of federal workers and military families whose shifting composition has turned a once reliably red county into a genuine toss-up.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached thirty-one points in 1912; the Republican margin reached forty points in 1984. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Stafford County's demographics — a population of 163,466, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $137,807 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Talbot County and James City County.