| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 959 | 945 | 1,938 | |
| 2020 | D | 1,234 | 917 | 2,189 | |
| 2016 | D | 970 | 595 | 1,827 | |
| 2012 | D | 1,488 | 557 | 2,135 | |
| 2008 | D | 1,557 | 620 | 2,196 | |
| 2004 | D | 1,340 | 914 | 2,267 | |
| 2000 | D | 1,076 | 548 | 1,651 | |
| 1996 | D | 1,208 | 436 | 1,736 | |
| 1992 | D | 1,225 | 691 | 2,102 | |
| 1988 | D | 1,243 | 861 | 2,119 | |
| 1984 | R | 946 | 990 | 1,966 | |
| 1980 | R | 980 | 1,065 | 2,145 | |
| 1976 | D | 1,379 | 1,047 | 2,453 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,202 | 1,297 | 2,525 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,027 | 1,176 | 2,287 | |
| 1964 | D | 1,649 | 1,058 | 2,713 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,589 | 1,242 | 2,834 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,191 | 1,529 | 2,723 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,347 | 1,575 | 2,922 | |
| 1948 | R | 1,550 | 1,565 | 3,115 | |
| 1944 | R | 1,539 | 1,649 | 3,188 | |
| 1940 | D | 2,082 | 1,807 | 3,889 | |
| 1936 | D | 2,187 | 1,775 | 3,966 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,909 | 1,621 | 3,542 | |
| 1928 | R | 1,093 | 1,718 | 2,811 | |
| 1924 | R | 1,056 | 1,329 | 2,564 | |
| 1920 | R | 1,224 | 1,599 | 2,840 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,172 | 1,067 | 2,275 | |
| 1912 | D | 761 | 651 | 1,662 | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Guadalupe County, anchored by the small city of Santa Rosa along old Route 66, is a rural, majority-Hispanic community where the 2024 presidential contest separated the candidates by fewer than 35 votes.
The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-four points in 1996; the Republican margin reached twenty-two points in 1928. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.
Guadalupe County's demographics — a population of 4,381, a 40% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $42,750 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Black Hawk County and Lake County.
