akashic
1876–2024
Guadalupe County, New Mexico
Guadalupe County·New Mexico

Guadalupe County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

One of New Mexico's smallest counties, decided by a handful of votes in 2024

18762024·38 elections
Guadalupe County, New Mexico · Wordbuilder · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
D+1
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
4,381
2024 ACS
Most similar
Black Hawk County
IA · similarity 0.99
5 precincts · 1,938 votes cast
Harris · D+1
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024D
+0.7%
9599451,938
2020D
+14.5%
1,2349172,189
2016D
+20.5%
9705951,827
2012D
+43.6%
1,4885572,135
2008D
+42.7%
1,5576202,196
2004D
+18.8%
1,3409142,267
2000D
+32.0%
1,0765481,651
1996D
+44.5%
1,2084361,736
1992D
+25.4%
1,2256912,102
1988D
+18.0%
1,2438612,119
1984R
−2.2%
9469901,966
1980R
−4.0%
9801,0652,145
1976D
+13.5%
1,3791,0472,453
1972R
−3.8%
1,2021,2972,525
1968R
−6.5%
1,0271,1762,287
1964D
+21.8%
1,6491,0582,713
1960D
+12.2%
1,5891,2422,834
1956R
−12.4%
1,1911,5292,723
1952R
−7.8%
1,3471,5752,922
1948R
−0.5%
1,5501,5653,115
1944R
−3.5%
1,5391,6493,188
1940D
+7.1%
2,0821,8073,889
1936D
+10.4%
2,1871,7753,966
1932D
+8.1%
1,9091,6213,542
1928R
−22.2%
1,0931,7182,811
1924R
−10.6%
1,0561,3292,564
1920R
−13.2%
1,2241,5992,840
1916D
+4.6%
1,1721,0672,275
1912D
+6.6%
7616511,662
1908
No data
1904
No data
1900
No data
1896
No data
1892
No data
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
1.5%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
52.0%
Other Christian
3.5%
Baptist
1.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.6%
Methodist
0.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 42.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Guadalupe County, anchored by the small city of Santa Rosa along old Route 66, is a rural, majority-Hispanic community where the 2024 presidential contest separated the candidates by fewer than 35 votes.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-four points in 1996; the Republican margin reached twenty-two points in 1928. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Guadalupe County's demographics — a population of 4,381, a 40% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $42,750 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Black Hawk County and Lake County.