akashic
1876–2024
Lynchburg, Virginia
Lynchburg city·Virginia

Lynchburg city votes the way the country votes.

A mid-size independent city trending closer to statewide margins

18762024·38 elections
Lynchburg, Virginia · Northern-Virginia-Photographer · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+8
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
79,497
2024 ACS
Most similar
Morris County
NJ · similarity 0.97
18 precincts · 37,023 votes cast
Trump · R+8
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−7.9%
16,66419,57437,023
2020D
+2.6%
18,04817,09736,363
2016R
−8.9%
14,79217,98235,657
2012R
−10.6%
15,94819,80636,448
2008R
−4.0%
16,26917,63834,341
2004R
−10.1%
11,72714,40026,340
2000R
−9.1%
10,37412,51823,506
1996R
−5.0%
10,28111,44123,012
1992R
−11.7%
9,58712,51824,969
1988R
−29.4%
8,27915,32323,926
1984R
−35.5%
8,54218,04726,772
1980R
−30.6%
7,78315,24524,417
1976R
−26.6%
8,22714,56423,804
1972R
−54.3%
1,4855,2296,891
1968R
−30.8%
4,3059,94318,299
1964R
−19.5%
6,75810,04416,834
1960R
−18.8%
4,9617,27112,256
1956R
−32.8%
3,3626,80610,502
1952R
−29.6%
3,8487,09010,949
1948D
+1.6%
2,4802,3736,747
1944D
+28.4%
4,3022,3966,713
1940D
+40.6%
4,6561,9666,631
1936D
+45.6%
3,6971,3735,092
1932D
+49.8%
3,6561,2004,936
1928R
−15.8%
1,9872,7304,717
1924D
+52.5%
2,0866062,820
1920D
+54.4%
2,0966092,731
1916D
+60.4%
1,4653531,842
1912D
+74.8%
1,4871111,840
1908D
+33.7%
9624731,449
1904D
+54.0%
9952921,301
1900D
+24.0%
1,0816601,753
1896D
+0.3%
1,6571,6473,367
1892D
+27.9%
2,4221,3583,811
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Polish
0.5%
African American
21.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
24.3%
Other Christian
16.7%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
7.9%
Mainline Protestant
6.9%
Methodist
6.1%
Non-Christian
1.0%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 28.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Lynchburg's presidential margin has narrowed notably over recent cycles, reflecting demographic shifts at Liberty University and a growing healthcare and education workforce that has gradually reshaped the electorate in this historically conservative independent city.

The Democratic margin in Lynchburg city has rarely exceeded seventy-five points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-four points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by eight points.

Lynchburg city's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 61% non-Hispanic-white share, a 19% poverty rate, and a median household income of $57,947 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Morris County and Hunterdon County.