akashic
1876–2024
Pasco County, Florida
Pasco County·Florida

Pasco County voted Democratic for a century. The shift began with civil rights.

A fast-growing Gulf Coast county that has shifted sharply rightward over two decades

18762024·38 elections
Pasco County, Florida · Jacobalexander89 · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+25
in 2024
Archetype
Old Confederacy
since the recent cycles
Population
611,444
2024 ACS
Most similar
Hernando County
FL · similarity 0.98
120 precincts · 318,431 votes cast
Trump · R+25
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−25.2%
117,424197,767318,431
2020R
−20.1%
119,073179,621301,970
2016R
−21.5%
90,142142,101241,139
2012R
−6.6%
98,263112,427213,573
2008R
−3.6%
102,417110,104214,866
2004R
−9.7%
84,749103,230190,916
2000D
+0.7%
69,57668,607142,769
1996D
+13.6%
66,47548,355133,471
1992D
+4.0%
53,13047,735135,962
1988R
−11.7%
50,38563,820114,803
1984R
−23.8%
40,96266,618107,588
1980R
−18.2%
34,05450,12088,442
1976D
+8.6%
33,71028,30662,747
1972R
−44.1%
11,33029,24940,676
1968R
−15.0%
6,2929,74323,001
1964D
+3.4%
8,1357,60615,741
1960R
−10.4%
5,8327,18813,020
1956R
−13.6%
4,1815,5019,682
1952R
−12.5%
3,5494,5628,111
1948D
+11.0%
2,3751,8394,881
1944D
+30.2%
2,5231,3523,875
1940D
+38.8%
3,0911,3624,453
1936D
+31.6%
2,2291,1593,388
1932D
+51.3%
2,5048063,310
1928R
−9.7%
1,3081,5912,932
1924D
+21.2%
7804721,456
1920D
+28.5%
1,1666301,884
1916D
+45.6%
7792361,191
1912D
+59.1%
48560719
1908D
+62.3%
43681570
1904D
+62.6%
45396570
1900D
+79.2%
49232581
1896D
+73.3%
48270562
1892D
+83.2%
4710566
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
5.1%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
13.9%
Other Christian
8.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.5%
Baptist
2.2%
Methodist
1.2%
Non-Christian
0.9%
Mainline Protestant
0.8%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 70.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Pasco's population has surged with retirees and families relocating from Tampa's urban core, a demographic wave that has coincided with a Republican margin climbing from single digits in the early 2000s to over 25 points in 2024.

The shift began with civil rights. 2004 marked the realignment in Pasco County, by a ten points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at forty-four points in 1972. The 2024 margin was twenty-five points.

The political shift has tracked, in Pasco County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 72% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $70,492, and a 11% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hernando County and Chautauqua County.